There are two key drivers supporting FCEL's expected +109.9% jump in its top line for fiscal 2022.įirstly, FuelCell Energy has guided that the company will focus on driving product sales going forward, instead of relying solely on Purchase Power Agreements or PPAs as it did in the last few years.Īt its Q4 FY 2021 earnings briefing on December 29, 2021, FCEL acknowledged that "over the past two fiscal years, we have had essentially zero revenues from product sales." But the company highlighted at the recent investor call that it is "looking forward to creating opportunities in other Asian markets as well as select countries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where we have made it a priority to target product sales."įuelCell Energy was unable to derive any revenue from product sales in the last two years, because of a legal case with Posco Energy which refers to itself as "the world's largest fuel cell producer." The consensus sales estimates for FCEL in FY 2024 and beyond are less relevant, as a majority of the sell-side analysts covering the stock have yet to provide their financial forecasts for fiscal 2024-2026. As such, the focus of FCEL's financial forecasts is on its future revenue estimates.Īs highlighted in the preceding section, FuelCell Energy's revenue is expected to increase by +109.9% and +20.9% to $146.1 million and $176.6 million in FY 2022 and FY 2023, respectively. FCEL Stock ForecastįuelCell Energy is currently unprofitable, and is expected to take a few more years to be in the black. More importantly, FuelCell Energy's expected strong fiscal 2022 top line expansion is driven by a one-off, which I explain in the next section. valuation discount for small-cap stocks) as well. But this is justified on the basis that FuelCell Energy's forecasted FY 2023 revenue growth is the weakest in the peer group, and that its market capitalization is the smallest among its peers (i.e.
It is important to evaluate how FCEL's valuations compare with that of its peers, apart from a review of consensus price targets.įuelCell Energy's Peer Valuation Comparison StockĬonsensus Forward FY 2022 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue MultipleĬonsensus Forward FY 2023 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue MultipleįCEL's consensus forward FY 2022 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiple is much lower than its peers as per the peer comparison valuation table presented above. In other words, none of the sell-side analysts think that FCEL's stock price will drop significantly from current levels. The lowest target price set by Wall Street analysts covering FCEL is $5.00, which still implies a capital appreciation potential of +4%. On the flip side, the potential downside for FuelCell Energy might not be substantial. I have chosen to make reference to FCEL's median target price, rather than its mean price target ($5.69), because the mean tends to be distorted by outliers. This translates to a modest upside of +9% as compared to FuelCell Energy's share price of $4.83 as of January 14, 2022. The median sell-side analyst consensus price target for FCEL is $5.25 at the time of writing, as per S&P Capital IQ data. This explains why FCEL is not a Buy, despite the fact that its forward FY 2022 Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiple is lower than that of its peers.īefore I proceed to discuss FuelCell Energy in greater detail in the subsequent sections of this article, it is worth referring to the chart below which details the company's key business highlights, revenue streams, and client base.Ī Quick Snapshot Of FuelCell Energy FuelCell EnergyįuelCell Energy What Is The Price Target For FCEL? FCEL is estimated by analysts to more than double its revenue in FY 2022 (YE October 31) thanks to a one-off sale, but this is unlikely to be sustainable as evidenced by expectations of normalized revenue expansion in fiscal 2023.
FCEL describes itself as a "manufacturer of proprietary fuel cell technology platforms" in the company's media releases.įuelCell Energy is a stock deserving of a Hold rating, after taking into account its current valuations and revenue growth forecasts for the next two years. I rate FuelCell Energy, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ: FCEL) shares as a Hold. Coddy/iStock via Getty Images Elevator Pitch
0 kommentar(er)
